The euro area's pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation.

This paper augments the European Commission's open-economy DSGE model (GM) with COVID-specific shocks ('forced savings', labour hoarding) and financially-constrained investors to account for the extreme volatility of private domestic demand and hours worked during COVID-19, and it estimates the model on euro area data for the period 1998q4-2021q4. It takes a pragmatic approach of adapting the workhorse model of a policy institution to COVID-19 data. 'Forced savings' are central to explain quarterly real GDP growth during the pandemic, complemented by contributions from foreign demand and trade, and the negative impact of persistently higher savings after the first wave. We provide extensive model validation, including a comparison to off-model evidence for COVID-related restrictions, and a comparison of different model specifications.

Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened.

Type 1 diabetes onset in Lombardy region, Italy, during the COVID-19 pandemic: The double-wave occurrence.

BACKGROUND: The Italian Lombardy region has been the epicenter of COVID-19 since February 2020. This study analyses the epidemiology of pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D) onset during the first two pandemic waves and three previous years. METHODS: All the 13 pediatric diabetes centers in Lombardy prospectively evaluated charts of children at T1D onset (0-17 years), during year 2020. After calculating the annual incidence, the data were compared with those of the 3 previous years, using generalized linear models, adjusted for age and sex. Monthly T1D new onsets and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) were investigated yearly from 2017 to 2020. Data were extracted from outpatients charts of the pediatric diabetes centers and from the database of the national institute of statistics. FINDINGS: The estimated incidence proportion of T1D was 16/100·000 in 2020, compared to 14, 11 and 12 in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. When adjusting for age and gender, the incidence was significantly lower in 2018 and 2017 compared to 2020 (adjusted incidence ratio: 0.73 and 0.77 respectively, with 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.84, and 0.67 to 0.83; p = 0·002 and p = 0·01), but no difference was found between the years 2020 and 2019. A reduction trend in the percentage of T1D diagnosis during the first wave (March-April) over the total year diagnoses was observed compared to previous years (11·7% in 2020, 17·7% in 2019, 14·1% in 2018 and 14·4% 2017). No difference was observed during the second wave (October-December) (32·8% in 2020, 33·8% in 2019, 34% in 2018, 30·7% in 2017). The proportion of DKA over the total T1D diagnoses during the second wave had higher trend than the first one (41·7% vs 33·3%), while severe DKA over the total DKA appeared higher during the first wave (60% vs 37·1%). INTERPRETATION: The study suggests an increase in the incidence of pediatric T1D in Lombardy throughout the past five years. Pandemic waves may have affected the clinical presentation at onset. FUNDING: None.

Improved metabolic control and quality of life in seven patients with type 1 diabetes following islet after kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The beneficial effects of glycemic control on both survival and function of transplanted kidneys in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have been recognized. METHODS: Herein, we present the clinical outcome of a single-center pilot trial of islet after kidney (IAK) transplantation in seven patients with T1DM. The immunosuppression protocol for the kidney graft was converted to sirolimus+tacrolimus regimen 6 months before islet transplantation to exclude negative effects on kidney graft function. Primary endpoint was achievement of insulin independence after transplantation. Clinical outcome, metabolic control, severe hypoglycemia, kidney function, Quality of Life (QOL) psychometric measures, and adverse events were monitored. RESULTS: Seven patients showed graft function with improved metabolic control (A1c, fasting glycemia, and metabolic tests) after IAK (14,779+/-3,800 IEQ/kg). One-year insulin independence was 30% with persistent graft function in 86% (C-peptide-positive). A1c reduction was 1.95+/-0.31% from baseline (P<0.0001). No episodes of severe hypoglycemia were observed, even after resuming insulin. The direct consequence of these benefits was a significant improvement in diabetes QOL. Adverse events included procedure-related pleural effusion (n=2), cholecystitis (n=1), and additional immunosuppression-related, all resolved without sequelae. Kidney function (by estimated glomerular filtration rate) remained stable during follow-up in six of seven patients. CONCLUSIONS: Islet transplantation represents a feasible therapeutic option for patients with T1DM bearing a stable kidney allograft. Insulin independence at 1 year is lower than what reported in islet transplant alone. Nevertheless, clear benefits in terms of optimal metabolic control and absence of severe hypoglycemia are invariably present.

Allosensitization of islet allograft recipients.

BACKGROUND: The immune monitoring of islet transplant recipients includes the assessment of panel reactive antibodies (PRA). A negative association of PRA+ with allogeneic solid organ graft survival has been recognized, but scattered data is available for islet transplantation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of PRA status in 66 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus recipient of islet allografts between 1985 and 2006. RESULTS: Pretransplant PRA+ was observed in 10 subjects in the old trials and associated with kidney transplantation and/or pregnancies. Thirteen subjects displayed PRA+ at follow-up, eight of whom were de novo. Overall, PRA+ did not correlate with islet graft outcome: long-term graft survival was observed in the presence of basal or persistent PRA+ and graft dysfunction occurred also in the absence of PRA+. Loss of graft function was associated with PRA+ after lowering of immunosuppression or after infection episodes. Loss of C-peptide did not affect kidney graft function even in simultaneous islet-kidney transplant recipients. Mostly, PRA remained negative under adequate immunosuppression. Patients whose immunosuppression was discontinued invariably developed PRA+. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring of PRA under immunosuppression may have little clinical value under adequate immunosuppression in islet transplant recipients. The implications of allosensitization after discontinuation of immunosuppression need to be evaluated to define the real clinical impact in this patient population.

Physical activity and diabetes.

Although physical activity is frequently recommended in the management of type Idiabetes it has not yet been established whether practising regular exercise could actually improve the long-term outcome of metabolic control. In this follow-up study we assessed the impact of long-term physical activity in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. We studied longitudinally 69 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, 43 boys and 26 girls aged at onset of the disease 8.98 +/- 3.90 years with a mean duration of the disease of 97 +/- 63 months. The patients were classified according to the duration of the disease in 3 groups [A:24-60 months (69); B: 61-120 months (41); C > or =121 months (19)]. The average time spent weekly doing exercise was recorded for each patient in the three duration periods taken into account. On average our patients reported 3.0 +/- 2.9 hours of physical activity per week. On the basis of the hour/week of physical activity we divided the patients into 4 groups [G1: <2 hrs/week (46%); G2: 2-4 hrs/week (29%); G3 >4 hrs/week (22%) > or =7 hrs/week (3%)]. The duration group B showed a significant lower HbAlc and HbA1c adjusted for duration of the disease in G4 compared to G2 (p < 0.05) and G3 (p < 0.05). No differences were found for insulin requirement, weight excess, blood pressure and heart rate between active and sedentary patients. According to our results we concluded that exercise can improve the quality of metabolic control only if it is adjusted to the training level of the patient.

Bone mineral density in diabetic children and adolescents: a follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether T1DM can affect bone mineral density (BMD) in children and adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional and longitudinal study of 57 diabetic children and adolescents and 57 normal controls. Total body and lumbar BMD and bone mineral content (BMC) were assessed by DXA (Lunar DPX) and volumetric transformation was calculated using the Katzman formula for total body BMD (BMAD) and using the Kroger formula for Lumbar BMD (L2L4BMDvol). BMC, BMAD, BMDspine, and L2L4BMDvol were adjusted for confounding factors such as age, gender, BMI, height, weight, and pubertal stage. RESULTS: BMDspine in the control group increased by 0.006 (g/cm(2))/year; while in the 39 diabetic patients longitudinally studied, it dropped by 0.006 (g/cm(2))/year during a follow-up period of 51 +/- 27 months. The average time spent weekly doing physical activity resulted in T1DM group directly correlated to BCM (P < 0.001) and inversely correlated with BMDspine (P < 0.05) and L2L4BMDvol (P < 0.01). L2L4BMDvol resulted significantly correlated with previous BMD spine (R = 0.63; P < 0.0001) and BMC evaluation (R = 0.42; P < 0.01) but not with BMAD. A second lumbar DXA evaluation performed in 38 patients after 1.00 +/- 0.16 years confirmed a small but significant decrease of 1.6% per year in L2L4BMDvol. The percentage of variation of L2L4BMDvol between the two evaluations was not correlated with the level of metabolic control, insulin requirement, and duration of the disease. Patients with complications showed similar L2L4BMDvol to patients without complications. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetic children and adolescents show a slight negative pattern of spine mineralization, which does not depend on metabolic control and microvascular complications.

"Governare il diabete" ("to steer diabetes"): a new proposal for diabetic camps.

"Governare il diabete" (the Italian translation of "to steer diabetes") is a project which gives young diabetics the opportunity of sailing with non-diabetic companions in a protected and educational environment. The education technique, based on the parallelism between sailing and diabetes, encourage correct self-management of both diabetes related and unrelated problems. The impact of the experience on self-esteem, quality of life and metabolic control is currently under investigation.